02/12/2025
The United States is in the middle of a storm, the tempest from which it will not emerge until the end of the decade. It’s part of a cycle that has defined the U.S. body politic since the American Revolution. The remaining question, from my point of view, is the nature of the next cycle, in terms of both institutional change and socio-economic change, that will usher in the next 50 or so years.
The next cycle will be determined largely by demography. Last week, The Washington Post published an article showing that, in some states, the number of total deaths outnumbered the number of total births. The obvious problem is that even though life expectancy is increasing, economic productivity tends to decline after the age of 70. This means that greater life expectancy increases consumption while the workforce shrinks. This has the makings of an economic crisis.
The Washington Post article cited recent reports from the Centers for Disease Control and the House Budget Committee on the trend of U.S. death rates exceeding birth rates. By the time Washington notices something, the trend is well underway.
