06/15/2020
A Layman's Prospective on Corona Virus Pandemic
April 21, 2020
Death is inevitably a part of life, nobody gets out of this world alive, I am fairly certain of this fact! That said; I do not wish that ultimate fate on anyone. I just want us to recognize that in this world no matter what else happens in the world people die and we that are still alive must live with that fact and make the most of our own lives while we are here.
I want to preface this by first letting the reader know that I am not a physician, economist, micro-biologist or politician, I do not have any designations after my name handed down by educational or professional organizations, and I do not have any particular ax to grind. I am just a citizen, husband, father, grandfather, real estate broker, rancher and generally a questioner of authority figures.
This brings me to the subject at hand here; the current world wide pandemic caused by the COVID-19 virus. As of today April 20th,2020, according to the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control, it is estimated to have caused approximately 164,656 deaths out of 2,355,853 cases. * Per the World Health Organization (WHO), the numbers on April 19th are 2,241,778 confirmed, 152,551 deaths. ** No matter the source or cause of death, these are terrible numbers to contemplate. However, pandemics and epidemics are not uncommon or unforetold by anyone’s measure, but our response is totally unprecedented.
Respiratory illness’s similar to COVID-19 are a constant threat to human health, worldwide, these annual epidemics are estimated to result in about 3 to 5 million cases of severe illness, and about 290,000 to 650,000 deaths. *** We do not shut down our economy or self-isolate ourselves each year during flu season.
During the 2009-2010 Swine Flu pandemic, the U.S. Center for Disease Control (CDC) estimated that 151,700-575,400 people worldwide died from (H1N1) pdm09 virus infection during the first year the virus circulated. The United States mounted a complex, multi-faceted and long-term response to the pandemic, summarized in The 2009 H1N1 Pandemic: Summary Highlights, April 2009-April 2010. On August 10, 2010, WHO declared an end to the global 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. However, (H1N1) pdm09 virus continues to circulate as a seasonal flu virus, and cause illness, hospitalization, and deaths worldwide every year. **** During that response we did not shut down our economy or self-isolate ourselves.
Worldwide every year we have outbreaks of yellow fever, malaria, Ebola, MERS, avian flu, meningitis and a host of other threats to our health. However, our response is not to shut down our economy or self-isolate ourselves every year.
The question is why is this outbreak treated differently, why does it dominate the news seemingly 24-7? What is the reason we have so much to fear from a virus that has infected roughly 2.5 million of the world’s 7.8 billion inhabitants? That is .00032 of the world’s population; for their sake why would we plunge the entire world into a self-inflicted recession, thus ruining businesses that people have invested their lives and fortunes into, upsetting the personal plans of countless lives, and giving policy makers problems never before encountered in modern times?
This response is, in my opinion overzealous and in large part unnecessary. I say in large part, perhaps in areas where the population is congested and interpersonal contact is most common, I can see the lock downs and personal isolation as a logical step in preventing the spread of an obvious threat. In areas of sparse populations this seems unwarranted where simple social distancing and use of some common sense can accomplish the same goal of containment.
The government’s job is only a few specific tasks those being “to establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity”. One can argue that this pandemic threatens our general welfare, or perhaps it presents as a common enemy in need of a common defense beyond any one citizen’s means to combat on their own. That given we have had a response from federal and state governments to that end, along with many individuals seeing a need and lending a hand.Did the governments of the world react to slowly, too soon, too weak, too strong? Who can say? The Monday morning quarter-backs will have their say when we get through this.
If we have leaders that will lead by using the data available in deciding how we should fight this battle then each state and local government can use that information in deciding what strategy is best for themselves based on their own demographics and risk factors. Dallas has different risk factors than Olton, Texas. New York City has different risk factors than Lake Pleasant. But the real responsibility is on us as individuals, we should be washing our hands, staying away from gatherings if we are ill, following our physician’s recommendations and generally using our common sense.
I propose that to reduce an entire population from the most robust economy seen in two generations, to the worst in the same time span in only a few short weeks, is nothing short of insanity. One cannot view this without wondering how is this either proportionate or logical response to such a threat as we are currently seeing. Followed by the next question: who profits by this reaction?
Many have profited, from the business of online shoppers no longer purchasing from brick and mortar stores, to companies receiving stimulus checks, pharmaceutical companies, and the medical community in general by massive amounts of overtime and logistical supplies required.
But what about political profiteer’s in this whole mess, do the liberals see a crack in conservatives handling of the crisis? Does this give us incentive to reject the export of our domestic manufacturing jobs and facilities that has occurred over the past few decades? And after this is declared over and to have passed us by, how many of us now working remotely from home will continue to do so, enjoying the lessened commute, expense of work attire and lunches every day, thus reducing our employers need for office space and infrastructure that supports it?
I do not have answer to many of these questions, time will resolve most all of them, we will once again recover and be content. Then sometime in the future, perhaps in my lifetime even, we will have another crisis either financial, health, civil unrest or war that will disrupt our lives again. When it does will, we once again overreact, spend trillions of dollars we don’t have and listen to doomsayers that predict certain disaster? Likely as not we will choose to do all of the above, I just hope I can foresee it in advance early enough to stock up on toilet paper!
* https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases
** https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200419-sitrep-90-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=551d47fd_4
*** https://www.who.int/en/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/influenza-(seasonal)
**** https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.html
Additional information:
https://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/statements/2017/flu/en/
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm
Latest information on the geographical distribution of COVID-19 cases globally, updated daily.
