08/24/2022
What If Mount Vesuvius Erupted Today?
On this day, August 24 of 79 AD, Italy's Mount Vesuvius had its infamous cataclysmic eruption that killed thousands of locals and vacationers in the modern, bustling cities of Pompeii, Herculaneum and their surrounds. Portions of those cities were buried in anywhere from 14 to 60 feet of ash, clay, magma and mud that continues to be excavated down to this day. The site has been a popular tourist attraction for decades, drawing millions each year and making it vital to the area's economy. In the fall of 2015, my husband and I traveled there, toured the city's remains and took a trip up to the top of the still active crater to look down inside! Truly awe-inspiring.
Many people are not aware that a few years before that violent eruption, the city had experienced an estimated magnitude 5 or 6 earthquake, which severely damaged the cities of Pompeii and Herculaneum. Most of that damage had been repaired by 79 AD, but that earthquake is believed to have been a precursor to the renewed activity of Mount Vesuvius, which prior to that had been dormant for a very long time. Because damage from that previous earthquake in no way equaled the damage done later by the mountain's eruption, it is likely another reason that if the inhabitants experienced any rumblings caused by the impending catastrophe, they were probably dismissed as another survivable earthquake event.
As the area still sits on the same fault line, and Mount Vesuvius is located in the most densely populated volcanic region in the world, the fact that it is still active makes it one of the most dangerous volcanos in the entire world. The volcano has exploded dozens of times since then, killing between 20 to an estimated 6,000 on those occasions. It last erupted and caused fatalities as recently as 1944, not that long ago, and experts believe it is due for another humongous blowout. What could happen if there were another large explosion today? And how likely is it?
In the nearby city of Naples, 3 million people live just 12 kilometers away. Over 600,000 people live even closer than that in the direct path of predictable lava flows. The eruption that leveled Pompeii was a level 5 on the VEI, Volcanic Explosivity Index. Even a VEI 4 explosion would no doubt kill over 10,000 people and cost the Italian economy over $20 billion dollars. A large portion of the population would lose power, water and transportation for months, if not longer. Air travel and shipping would be disrupted for the entire European continent for weeks as well. Downtown Naples could be buried in many feet of ash, depending on which way the wind was blowing.
How likely is such a thing to happen in the near future? Well, the Italian government is concerned enough about the likelihood that it is actively trying to get people to move away from the mountain's immediate vicinity. It is offering people £30,000 (about $40,000) per person to do so. A national park is being created around the volcano that no one will be allowed to live in.
The Vesuvius Observatory, the oldest one in the world established in 1841, monitors seismic activity on the mountain 24/7 for signs of an impending eruption. If so advised, the Italian government has also prepared an emergency evacuation plan to move close to a million people living nearby out of harm's way within a 72-hour period. So the threat is real.
The bottom line is ... this is a fascinating attraction in a beautiful part of the world. But if you were ever interested in seeing it in person, maybe you'd want to "git while the gittin's good" and make that trip real soon!
